SR 09-13-2016 8B
Ci ty Council
Report
City Council Meeting : September 13, 2016
Agenda Item: 8.B
1 of 16
To: Mayor and City Council
From: Dean Kubani, Sustainability Manager , Office of Sustainability & the
Environment
Subject: Climate Action Update to Council: 15x15 Climate Action Plan Final Report,
Sea Level Rise Analysis and the New Climate Action and Ada ptation Plan
Recommended Action
Staff recommends that the City Council:
1. Review and comment on the 15X15 Climate Action Plan Final Report ; and
2. Direct staff to complete a feasibility and financial impact analysis for achieving
carbon neutral ity by 2050 or s ooner , and return to Council with
recommendations.
Executive Summary
The City of Santa Monica has been a long -time pioneer among cities taking local action
to spur global response to the threat of long -term climate change. As a coastal city in
an arid cl imate zone, our city is particularly vulnerable to the potential adverse impacts
of severe climate change due to human activity. The example of Santa Monica and
other local communities have helped catalyze California’s internationally -significant
efforts to mitigate climate change. This worldwide movement of cities and governments
helped support the Paris Agreement last year where 195 countries adopted the first -
ever universal, legally binding global climate accord.
On February 26, 2013, Council adopted the 15x15 Climate Action Plan, which was a
short -term, action -based plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 15% below 1990
levels by 2015. Implementation of the 15x15 Climate Action Plan was completed at the
end of FY 2015. Monitoring and evaluation reveal s that the City surpassed its
greenhouse gas emissions reduction target. Compared to 1990, Santa Monica’s annual
emissions are now 20% below baseline.
On January 26, 2016 Council authorized the hiring of a consultant to develop a new
Climate Action and Ad aptation Plan (CAAP) to guide continued reductions and
mitigation efforts to meet the City’s long term emission reduction goals and to develop
adaptation strategies to expected local impacts of climate change. Development of this
2 of 16
plan is underway and it is scheduled to be delivered to Council in 2017 . A study
evaluating the local impacts of sea level rise and increased storm activity is nearing
completion and this will provide the basis for many of the local adaptation strategies to
be included in the plan.
I n February 2013 Council adopted long range emission reduction targets calling for a
30% reduction by 2030 and 80% by 2050. The December 2015 Paris Agreement that
resulted from the United Nations -organized Conference of the Parties (COP21)
acknowledges th at deeper reductions in global emissions will be required to limit global
average temperature increases and recommends that governments work to achieve
carbon neutrality. Following the release of this agreement the Santa Monica Task
Force on the Environme nt adopted a motion recommending that City Council adopt a
carbon neutrality target for Santa Monica and develop a plan to meet it by 2050 or
sooner. Carbon neutrality means that the net greenhouse gas emissions associated
with a city are zero. This goal h as been adopted by many leading cities around the
world, and is considered the new imperative to avoid worsening climate change. The
CAAP will include a feasibility and financial impact analysis for achieving carbon
neutrality under various timelines, and when the plan is completed staff will return to
Council with final recommendations.
Background
Council adopted the Sustainable City Plan (SCP) in 1994 to protect natural resources,
prevent harm to the natural environment, enhance human health, and improv e the
social and economic well -being of the community for current and future generations.
In light of increasing scientific consensus on the threat of global climate change, o n
October 10, 2006, Council amended the SCP with updated goal areas, targets and
indicators, which included reduction in the local generation of Greenhouse Gas
Emissions (GHG). These are a primary source of build -up of carbon in the atmosphere,
the impetus for global climate change.
The GHG targets established were a 15 percent redu ction below 1990 levels by 2015
communitywide and a 30 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2015 for municipal
operations. These went considerably beyond the requirements of the landmark AB 32,
3 of 16
signed into law by California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger later in 2006.
On July 6, 2010, Council adopted the Land Use and Circulation Element (LUCE), which
calls for the preparation of a Climate Action Plan with periodic monitoring to evaluate
progress. On February 26, 2013, Council adopted longer term emiss ion reduction
targets calling for a 30% reduction below 1990 levels by 2030 and an 80% reduction by
2050, and adopted the 15x15 Climate Action Plan to ensure the City would meet its
previously adopted short term goals of a communitywide15% reduction below baseline
levels and a 30% reduction for municipal operations by 2015. On January 26, 2016
Council authorized the hiring of a consultant to develop a new Climate Action and
Adaptation Plan (CAAP) to guide continued reductions and mitigation efforts to meet the
City’s long term emission reduction goals and to develop adaptation strategies to
address expected local impacts of climate change.
The State Legislature has recently passed legislation committing California to the same
30% reduction by 2030 that San ta Monica adopted three years ago.
Discussion
When the 15x15 Climate Action Plan (15x15 CAP) was prepared, staff conducted a
greenhouse gas inventory of community sources for the year 2011. The inventory
revealed that emissions had dropped 14% below 1990 levels. Staff projected that,
based on increased economic activity and population, emissions would increase. In
order to achieve the 15% reduction target below 1990, the City would have to reduce
approximately 29,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalen ts or MTCO2e,
(equivalents refer to methane and nitrous oxide being measured in units of carbon
dioxide ‘equivalents’).
Figure 1. Santa Monica’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions
4 of 16
The 15x15 CAP identified 15 objectives to be completed by the end of fiscal year 20 15
(Attachment 1). Each objective includes actions to be implemented by various City
divisions, or required action to be taken by residents and businesses. In total, there
were 34 actions included in the plan . Completing these objectives and actions would
help the City mitigate and reduce the remaining 29,000 MTCO2e and achieve 15%
below baseline targets. The 15x15 Climate Action Plan Final Report has been prepared,
providing greater analysis on the attainment status, challenges and successes of each
action (Attachment 4). This staff report provides a summary of the findings. A summary
table of the analysis (Attachment 2) and a summary of highlights and challenges
(Attachment 3) are attached to provide additional detail and analysis.
The 15x15 CAP was moni tored through indicators provided by various City divisions.
Emission factors for each appropriate action were then applied, generating a value for
reduced or avoided emissions. Emission factors are provided by the US EPA, ICLEI’s
ClearPath Tool (a nationa lly recognized tool for local government climate action
planning), and other industry -standards. The table below shows the attainment status of
the objectives and actions.
Table 1. 15x15 Climate Action Plan Attainment
Attainment / Status Objectives Actions
5 of 16
Achieved 7 19
Some effort / Some progress achieved 6 9
No effort / No progress 2 6
TOTAL 15 34
Overall, 46% of the 15 objectives were met and 55% of the 34 actions were completed.
17% of the 34 actions were not met or were in progress at the time of this report.
Significant emissions reductions came through the following efforts:
Increasing energy efficiency in residential and commercial buildings through
utility incentives, reducing energy use
Increasing waste diverted through green waste collection and diversion of special
waste like textiles and electronics, reducing methane from decomposing waste
Focusing new development around mass transit, reducing vehicle emissions
through increased access and mobility
Transitioning Big Blue Bus to renewable na tural gas sourced from landfill
methane
Implementing energy efficiency projects in municipal operations to save 1.3 MWh
since 2013
The 15x15 CAP was developed and intended to be implemented within existing
program budgets and staff resources. However, som e of the City -led projects for energy
efficiency, renewable energy and electric vehicles were not implemented due to project
funds not being identified and extensive lead times for project development. While
some small projects were implemented, staff det ermined that strategic planning for
achieving long -term, aggressive goals in energy efficiency, renewable energy and
electric vehicles was a priority.
There were some actions that were completed that were not anticipated in the plan. For
example, at the time of plan development, staff did not take into account the impact of
utility incentive programs on building energy efficiency. Instead of increasing as
6 of 16
previously projected, annual community energy use in the city dropped appreciably
since 2013: commer cial energy use decreased by over 5 MWh and 1.2M therms; and
residential natural gas use by 200,000 therms. Another example includes the Big Blue
Bus transitioning from virgin natural gas to renewable natural gas sourced from landfills,
an action not previ ously available at the time of plan development. As future programs,
projects and technologies cannot be predicted, the next climate action plan will
incorporate a portion of uncertain efficiencies to be gained through market
transformation.
In order to a chieve the 2015 target, a total of 29,000 metric tons of CO2e would need to
be eliminated. As a result, the monitoring and evaluation tracked verified a t otal of
35,592 metric tons of carbon emissions that were reduced or avoided through the
efforts of the 15x15 CAP and from other regional or statewide efforts.
To complete the analysis, staff conducted an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions
from 2015. The 2015 inventory reveals that emissions have dropped a total of 95,974
MTCO2e since 2011, which is 1 9.9% below the 1990 baseline, surpass ing the City’s
15% target. The additional reductions were a result of increased renewable sources of
electricity generation and more fuel -efficient and alternatively -fuelled vehicles. And
although the City surpassed its target, staff continues to work on the actions that were in
progress or were not yet completed by the end of 2015, which will increase the emission
reductions in the coming months.
Table 2. Santa Monica Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends
MTCO2e 1990 200 0 2007 2011 2015
Residential 188,514 202,331 196,284 154,666 134,139
Commercial 329,123 326,083 311,762 213,219 149,501
Industrial 32,215 25,902 61,618 35,261 50,951
7 of 16
Vehicle
Transportation 762,242 752,156 742,070 746,230 715,267
Aviation -- -- 26,800 21,912 26,348
Waste 74,546 63,364 51,705 35,001 34,109
TOTAL 1,386,640 1,369,836 1,390,239 1,206,289 1,110,315
% below 1990 -- 1.2% -0.3% 13.0% 19.9%
Difference from
target (15% below
baseline)
-- 191,192 211,595 27,645 -68,329
Population 86,905 85,0 84 90,379 90,850 93,220
Per capita
emissions 16.0 16.1 15.4 13.3 11.9
Municipal Operations
Council also established a 2015 emissions reduction target for municipal operations of
30% below 1990 levels. Since 1990, municipal operations have increased si gnificantly,
due to expansion of transit services and new facilities being constructed, like Tongva
Park, Parking Structure 6 and Arcadia Water Treatment Plant. After a peak in 2007,
emissions have since declined.
Through implementation of the 15x15 CAP, t he City completed a number of energy
efficiency projects saving 1.3 megawatt hours since 2013. The 15x15 CAP called for a
complete conversion of City -owned streetlights to energy efficient LED bulbs. Due to
funding and scheduling delays outside of the Cit y’s control only 10% of the streetlights
were converted by the end of 2015 . However, before the end of 2016 the City will
complete an LED retrofit of over 1,200 streetlights, nearing the goal previously
established. Staff have identified additional energy efficiency projects totaling over 2
megawatt hours to complete by 2017.
The most significant reduction in municipal emissions came from the transition of Big
Blue Bus (BBB) to renewable natural gas. The transition from virgin natural gas, from
fracked sour ces, to landfill -sourced renewable methane, has helped to reduce BBB’s
8 of 16
transit fleet emissions by over 60%.
The City continues to procure Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) for 100% of its eligible
electricity accounts. Staff track municipal emissions in two scenarios: one accounting for
RECs and one not accounting. This allows for staff to better understand both the value
of energy efficiency and onsite renewable energy and purchasing RECs. When
accounting for RECs, the City achieved a 42% reduction below 19 90 levels for
municipal greenhouse gas emissions .
Table 3. Municipal Operations Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends
Establishing a Goal of Ca rbon Neutrality
It is important to keep in mind that local action alone is insufficient to halt or even slow
global climate change. Santa Monica’s efforts are aimed at doing our part and showing
the efficacy of local action as a spur to State, Federal and international cooperation to
face this existential threat to life on earth as we have known it during modern history.
Since Council adopted a target of 30% reduction b y 2030 and 80% by 2050 (80x50),
c limate action planning has matured and growing awaren ess around climate change
MTCO2e 1990 2000 2007 2011 2012 2015
Buildings
&Facilities
Electricity 4,620 6,200 5,042 4,424 5,354 4,995
Natural Gas 585 1,444 1,987 3,141 1,266 982
Streetlights & Traffic
Signals 2,052 3,572 4,298 1,297 2,104 1,589
Vehicle Fleet 3,684 4,001 4,936 2,188 2,124 1,905
Water Delivery 488 1,839 1,722 4,862 4,433 4,133
Big Blue Bus 12,109 16,189 18,069 15,971 15,268 7,436
TOTAL 18,918 27,045 36,054 31,883 30,549 21,040
Percent below 1990 -43% -91% -69% -61% -11%
Renewable Energy Credits 9,772 9,340 5,721 7,458 10,142
TOTAL less RECs 17,273 26,714 26,162 23,091 10,898
Percent below 1990 9% -41% -38% 28% 42%
9 of 16
has spurred more urgency around deep carbon reductions.
The December 2015 Paris Agreement that resulted from the UN -organized Conference
of Parties (COP21) recognizes that in order to limit global average temperature
increase, Pa rties (national governments) should seek to achieve a “balance between
anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the
second half of this century.” This can be interpreted as advocating for carbon neutrality
by 2050. B eing carbon neutral means that the net greenhouse gas emissions
associated with a city are zero. The Agreement also recognizes that deep reductions in
global emissions will be required with an emphasis “that enhanced pre ‐2020 ambition
can lay a solid found ation for enhanced post ‐2020 ambition.”
Shortly after the release of the Paris Agreement, the Santa Monica Task Force on the
Environment adopted the followi ng motion on December 21, 2015: “In light of the
recent COP21, which explicitly includes a carbon neutrality goal, the Task Force on the
Environment strongly recommends City Council adopt a carbon neutrality target for
Santa Monica and direct staff to develop a plan for meeting that target by 2050 or
sooner.”
Santa Monica is an active member of the De ep Carbon Reductions Working Group and
an observer of the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance within the Urban Sustainability
Directors Network. Through research and information sharing with other leading
sustainable cities, staff has recognized that a bold and transformative vision of change
must be developed in order to achieve drastic reductions in emissions. Cities that had
previously adopted 80x50 targets have, in recent years, adopted carbon neutrality goals
or other more aggressive goals.
Other cities h ave adopted goals to be fossil -fuel free or to achieve 100% renewable
energy. A goal of 100% renewables is more specific and more challenging when applied
to building energy and vehicle fuels; electricity and natural gas must be sourced from
renewables (or natural gas use will be diminished greatly) and all vehicles will be
electrified or powered by other low -carbon fuels like hydrogen. A goal of 100%
10 of 16
renewables can be a contributing factor toward achieving carbon neutrality. Some cities
use this goal becau se they believe it is easier to understand and is more inspirational
than a carbon emissions goal. Below is a table of other cities’ long range carbon and
energy goals and target years.
Table 3. Leading Cities’ Climate Goals
City Emissions Goal Target Y ear
Copenhagen Carbon neutral
100% renewables
2025
2050
Melbourne Carbon neutral 2020
Palo Alto 80% below baseline 2030
San Francisco 80% below baseline
100% renewables
2050
2030
San Diego 100% renewables 2035
Santa Monica (current) 80% below baselin e 2050
Seattle Carbon neutral 2050
Stockholm Fossil -fuel free 2050
Vancouver Fossil -fuel free
100% renewables
2050
2050
On February 26, 2016, when Council approved the selection of DNV -GL to prepare the
City’s Climate Action & Adaptation Plan (CAAP), staff had required that the consultant
compare pathways to an 80x50 goal and a carbon neutrality goal. The CAAP will
include feasibility and financial impact analyses of achieving carbon neutrality by 2030,
2040, and 2050 and will present recommendations for Council consideration and
approval. Regardless of the final recommendation, it is clear that a dramatic shift in
building energy use, energy generation and vehicle fuels will need to occur to meet any
aggressive long term emission reduction goal. Belo w is a conceptual graphic of that
shift.
Figure 2. Pathways to Deep Decarbonization
11 of 16
Source: Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University
The process to develop the CAAP will engage community leaders and specialists in
identifyin g measures that will reduce emis sions and support climate adaptation. Staff,
with consultants, will also engage the community to identify actions that can be taken by
individuals, businesses and local organizations to support the Plan. A goal to achieve
carbon neutrality would establish the imperative for deep carbon reductions and would
build off of existing efforts to continue reducing and mitigating carbon emissions at the
community level and in municipal operations.
While new goals and measures are being established in the next CAAP, staff are
already integrating resource conservation into policy and project development that will
serve as the foundation for carbon emissions reductions. Some examples include:
Prioritizing multimodal mobility, including low carbon options like biking, w alking,
and transportation by bus and rail
Evaluating a requirement for solar energy systems and energy efficiency in
exceedance of the State energy code to achieve zero net energy in new
construction by 2017
12 of 16
Designing for zero net energy and zero net wate r in the proposed City Services
Building
Designing a multiuser microgrid for the City Yards redevelopment area and
utilizing EcoDistricts as a framework for neighborhood planning and engagement
Achieving zero waste to landfills by 2030
Climate Change Adap tation
While Santa Monica continues to remain a leader among sustainable cities, our efforts
alone will not be enough to avoid the momentum of global climate change. Changing
climatic trends like drought, increased heat and worsened air quality, are curren tly being
experienced. Future hazards, such as sea level rise, more frequent and larger wildfires
and increasing numbers of extreme heat days, are alre ady considered likely to happen
despite best case scenarios for global emissions reductions. Adaptation a nd resilience
are considered to be the next forefront of sustainable community planning as a
response to climate change impacts.
California is making important strides in addressing and requiring climate resilience,
including Gov. Jerry Brown’s Executive Order B -30 -15, which requires state agencies to
factor climate change into their planning and investment decisions; AB 1482, which
requires the Natural Resource Agency to report on the State’s vulnerabilities to climate
change by sector and prepare a “Safe guarding California” implementation plan; SB 246,
which requires the Office of Planning and Research to coordinate regional and local
efforts with state climate adaptation strategies; and SB 379, which requires all cities and
counties to include climate ad aptation and resiliency strategies in the safety elements of
their general plans upon the next revision beginning January 1, 2017.
Climate change will soon be a required consideration for long range planning and
capital projects. To respond to some of th ese challe nges, Office of Sustainability and
the Environment staff have contributed to the development of a new resource entitled “A
Greater LA: the Framework for Regional Clima te Action and Sustainability.” When
completed t his document will:
13 of 16
Provide strat egies to mitigate the emission of climate change -causing
greenhouse gases
Assess the impacts of climate change and outline adaptation measures to
undertake, and
Outline a path towards sustainable economic growth for communities throughout
Greater L.A.
The CAAP will incorporate information from this work and from the State adaptation
planning efforts , and develop implementation measures for the City’s various
departments to embed adaptation planning. These measures may include:
Ensuring new infrastructure is designed to withstand, adapt or be resilient to
changing environmental conditions, such as intense & infrequent precipitation,
increased temperatures, or increased wave action or coastal inundation
Evaluating the resilience of existing facilities and re trofitting for lowered energy
consumption and grid -independent operations, with technologies like batteries
and fuel cells
Considering co -benefits of programs, projects or infrastructure that serve to
increase awareness, preparedness and resilience to chan ging environmental
conditions
Establishing a baseline of community resilience, using existing tools such as the
Wellbeing Index, and implementing programs to improve on that baseline
Sea Level Rise
As noted above, the CAAP will assess the impacts of clima te change and identify ways
to mitigate, prepare, adapt and be resilient to the challenges posed by these impacts.
Such impacts include: drought, increased temperatures, heat waves, changes in
precipitation and air quality. One area where extensive analysi s is currently being
conducted is around sea level rise.
On August 26, 2014, Council approved the acceptance of grant funds from the
California Ocean Protection Council for data collection and analysis for sea level rise
14 of 16
(SLR) planning and capacity buildi ng . The grant is funding the development of shoreline
change models that will assess the coastal impacts of SLR and varying degrees of
storms in the LA metropolitan coastal region. The high resolution, dynamic model will
incorporate storms, SLR and shoreli ne change and provide the City of Santa Monica,
and other coastal communities in the Greater Los Angeles Metropolitan Region, with
detailed information to inform the development of climate preparedness and adaptation
planning processes.
Previously, the mo deling activities have followed State guidance for SLR projections,
which assumed a high scenario of approximately 6 ft (2 meters). However, scientists
recently have found that the accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet and that of
Antarctica, whic h is not well understood, has the potential to contribute an additional 6.5
feet of sea level rise by 2100.
The State of California is in the process of updating its SLR guidance, which will include
a higher range scenario. Interim guidance is expected i n fall 2016, with final guidance
expected in late 2018.
While the interim State SLR scenarios have not yet been finalized, staff and the
consultant team are anticipating the State to recommend abandoning the “low” sea level
rise scenarios for 2030, 2050 a nd 2100. The State will also likely recommend that
coastal communities include discussion of the impact of 138 inches (or 3.5 meters) of
sea level rise by 2100 in their ongoing adaptation and local coastal planning projects. In
anticipation of this change, the consultant team will provide a qualitative analysis of
what this “extreme high” projection would mean for Santa Monica and the rest of the LA
region.
Table 4. Proposed Sea Level Rise Analysis Changes
Year Low Medium High Extreme High
2030 2 inches 6 inches 12 inches 16 inches ± 4 inches
2050 5 inches 11 inches 24 inches 36 inches ± 10 inches