SR-120208-1ICity Council Meeting: December 2, 2008
Agenda Item: _ _
To: Mayor and City Council
From: Eileen Fogarty, Director of Planning and Community Development
Subject: Preparation of a Travel Demand Model and a Nexus Study
Recommended Action
Staff recommends that City Council direct staff to:
1) Authorize the City Manager to negotiate and execute a professional services
agreement with Fehr & Peers in an amount not to exceed $565,000 for the
preparation of a travel. demand model, evaluation of existing and future land use
and transportation scenarios for the Land Use and Circulation Element (LUCE),
and preparation of documentation for the Environmental Impact Report (EIR):
2) Authorize staff to negotiate and execute the additional contract provision with
Fehr & Peers in an amount not to exceed $114,600 for the preparation of a
nexus study to support atransportation-based development impact fee; and
3) Authorize the budget changes identified in the Financial Impacts and Budget
Actions section.
Executive Summary
One of the imperatives of the LUCE Strategy Framework is that the City manage the
transportation system in ways that serve community goals. The procurement of the
team of Fehr & Peers with Nelson/Nygaard is to prepare a new travel demand model
that will serve the City for many years into the future. A model will enable the City to
predict how the changes in land use coupled with transportation improvements will
affect the City's transportation system. Most immediately, the new model will provide the
transportation analysis as part of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA)
evaluation of the draft LUCE. The team will be conducting the analysis and
documenting the findings for inclusion in the LUCE EIR.
A new travel demand model will require actual parcel-level data for all current and
proposed land uses in the City. Staff is finalizing the collection and verification of land
uses on a parcel-by-parcel basis and will have this comprehensive assessment
completed by the time it is needed for use in the travel demand model.
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The consultant team will also conduct a nexus study required for the City to assess
developers for their share of transportation system improvement costs attributable to the
impacts of their projects. A nexus study will assess the improvement measures required
as part of a comprehensive traffic management strategy, the cost of these measures,
and the appropriate fees that should be imposed to mitigate the identified impacts of
each project. Implementation of a traffic impact fee will ensure that approved
development pays its fair share of future improvements to the multi-modal transportation
system.
Staff proposes using CIP funds designated for a streetscape project on Arizona Avenue
and contingency funds from ahother LUCE contract. The transportation impact fee can
be developed to incorporate the costs of creating the fee and can ultimately be used to
reimburse planning costs paid out of the General Fund.
Discussion
On September 23, 2008 City Council directed staff to proceed with the development of a
travel demand model and nexus study. Staff committed to provide Council with the
recommended options to be included in-the model and the resulting costs for both the
model and the nexus study. The development of a travel demand model as a predictive
measurement tool will enable the City to proactively and effectively address auto traffic.
Much more analytical capability and information will be available to decision makers
with a new travel demand model.
Features of the Travel Demand Model
In addition to development of a base model for the entire City for AM and PM peak
hours, the firm will develop the following additional model capabilities and features listed
below:
• A weekend mid-day assessment (Saturday model);
• Greenhouse gas emissions analysis capability;
• Walking and bicycling demand by street segment;
• The relationship between different levels of transit investment and how it affects
how many people take transit;
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• Trip generation rates by different types of land uses and geographic
characteristics;
• .Parking demand for existing or proposed parking districts;
• Performance measures such as relative travel time by mode, level of service by
mode, and vehicle miles traveled;
• Information regarding regional pass-through versus locally-generated traffic on
City streets:
• Additional "horizon year" model runs to address possible phasing scenarios; and
• Various graphical displays of the results.
Development of Land Use Data Base
Staff has already undertaken the task of collecting and verifying land uses on a parcel-
by-parcel basis and will have completed this comprehensive assessment within the
timeframe needed for the development of the travel demand model. This land use data
is being coded into the City's Geographic Information System (GIS) and the travel
demand model will link to this database. The City's parcel data base will be updated on
an ongoing basis with any new or proposed development. The detailed land use
information by parcel will provide the basis for the model to determine how new
development will impact traffic. It will also help in assessing the. effectiveness of
proposed transportation improvements and Transportation Demand Management
measures.
Environmental Analysis
Timely development of the travel demand model is critical in order to proceed with the
environmental review of a Draft LUCE plan. The development and testing of the model
is expected to take three months from the notice-to-proceed and will be needed as part
of the environmental analysis for CEQA. It is extremely important to the overall LUCE
schedule that the model be completed as soon as possible to allow the environmental
analysis to proceed. Completion of a draft transportation impact report in support of the
Draft EIR is anticipated within four months of the start. As part of the environmental
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analysis the team will develop mitigation measures and .prepare the transportation
section of the EIR.
Consultant Selection
A Request for Proposals (RFP) was issued to six firms interested in preparing this
model for the City, with responses due November 10, 2008. Three firms responded and
a selection committee comprised of staff from Transportation Management and PCD
Administration evaluated the proposals based on the following criteria stated in the
RFP:
• Experience in preparing similar projects;
• Proposed approach, tasks and methodology to be used in providing the required
services;
• Qualifications, experience and availability of key personnel;
• Appropriate distribution of responsibilities within the project team;
• Record of successful relationships with other public-and corporate clients:
• Ability to complete the scope of work within an expedited project schedule; and
• Reasonableness of proposed fee schedule in relation to proposed work plan.
The strongest response was from Fehr and Peers in association with Nelson Nygaard.
Fehr and Peers demonstrated a thorough understanding of the overall project and
provided examples of similar projects undertaken in other communities including
Petaluma, Santa Barbara and West Hollywood. Their proposal identified specific
methodologies they would use to enable the model to provide output that is relevant to
evaluating how well the transportation system achieves Land Use and Circulation
Element Strategy Framework goals, for example: output on greenhouse gas emissions,
vehicle miles travelled and the relationship between land use and transportation. In
addition Fehr and Peers approach to the nexus study recognizes that transportation
improvements are not limited to capital projects that expand system capacity, and that
other modes and travel demand are important factors in system performance:
The variation in scope complexity and detail resulted in a wide range of cost proposals,
ranging from $250,000 to $442,000 for preparation of a travel demand model and
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evaluation of scenarios. Only the Fehr and Peers proposal included the full cost of the
environmental analysis for EIR and the cost of performing the nexus study.
Financial Impact & Budget Actions
The total not-to-exceed cost of the model development and the nexus study is.
$679,600, including a ten percent contingency and will be funded by the following
action:
Transfer $579,600 from CIP#010835.589000, Arizona Streetscape and $100,000
from contract P010880.589000 and appropriate to a new CIP # P017015.589000
Travel Demand & Nexus Study Project.
Currently the Arizona Streetscape project is not fully funded. Sufficient funding is still
available for staff to proceed with the Arizona bike lane improvements and staff intends
to proceed with the bike lane project later this fiscal year.
Transportation impact fees can be developed to incorporate the costs of creating the
fee, including the cost of developing the travel demand model and performing the nexus
study. Therefore, the General Fund can be repaid for the expenditures authorized in
this report, which can ultimately refund the Arizona Streetscape CIP.
Prepared by: Lucy Dyke, Transportation Planning Manager
Forwarded't'o Council:
t-
E}f(;en Fogarty ~ ~ / / P. L
ont E~FiE
erector, Planning
Development a d munity ~
City anager
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Reference Contract No.
9016 (CCS).