SR-092308-8CCity Council Meeting: September 23, 2008
Agenda Item: ~ "~
To: Mayor and .City Council
From: Eileen Fogarty, Director, Planning and Community Development
Subject: Land Use and Circulation Element (LUCE) Next Steps: Transportation
Analysis Methodology and Impact Fee Implementation
Recommended Action
Staff recommends that City Council direct staff to:
Refine measurement tools to assess and monitor the ongoing performance of
the transportation system;
2. Develop a forecasting model that can be used in the environmental evaluation
of the Land Use and Circulation Element (LUCE); and
3: Develop a nexus study to implement a Transportation Mitigation Impact Fee.
Executive Summary
The City Council endorsed Principles for the LUCE Strategy Framework that provide a
holistic vision and integrated approach to shape the City's future over the next twenty
years. One of the imperatives of the LUCE Strategy Framework is that the City begin to
manage the transportation system in ways that serve community goals, and that it begin
to proactively and effectively limit growth in auto traffic. The Strategy Framework links
land use to transportation enabling the City Council to:
^ Manage future congestion with a goal of No Net New Trips;
• Measure and monitor the transportation system on an ongoing basis;
• Phase future development based on the capability of the transportation system; and
• Fund and implement the necessary improvements to the system.
In order to achieve these results, City Council has requested that staff report on
methodologies for measuring traffic and the effectiveness of the transportation system.
A broad range of tools are being explored and refined. This report covers the
development of three areas:
• Performance Measurement Tools to Assess Today's Conditions - A set of
measurement tools will enable the City to assess the state of the transportation
system at any point in time, monitor progress at periodic intervals; validate or refine
forecasting tools or assumptions, and develop information to manage the City's
future. The public conversation about transportation performance measures has
occurred through multiple community workshops and has resulted in a long list of
possible performance indicators (Attachment A). This report discusses the approach
to refine this list and to develop a set of recommended on-going measures that can
be used as a tool similar to the Sustainable City Report Gard.
• Predictive Measurement Tools to Assess Future Conditions - In addition to
measuring the transportation system at any point in time, the City needs to be able
to predict how the changes in land use coupled with transportation improvements
will affect the City's transportation system. The City currently uses a tool which
projects vehicle delay at intersections and calculates intersection Level of Service
(LOS) for automobiles based on regional growth and local development activity
assumptions. Additional factors that are critical to LUCE include travel times along
corridors; the relationship of travel behavior to land use patterns; and effectiveness
of demand management measures. This report discusses the option of proceeding
with a travel demand model for the purpose of analyzing LUCE.
The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) analysis of the draft Land Use and
Circulation Element (LUCE) could be performed with the City's current accepted
traffic model supplemented by additional measures such as vehicle miles traveled
(VMT). This. report discusses the. merits of developing a more sophisticated
forecasting instrument as well as time and cost considerations. Staff is
recommending that the City move forward with the development of a new
forecasting model for LUCE and continue to use the existing model to analyze
proposed development projects.
• Traffic Impact Fees -Implementation of a traffic impact fee will ensure that
approved development pays its fair share of future improvements to the multi-modal
transportation system. Now that the Circulation Element Framework has been
developed, there is an outline in place to identify the needed improvements for the
transportation system. Within this context, the City could move forward with a study
to develop a fee based on the estimated costs of transportation improvements.
This report recommends the development of a fee, through a nexus study, that will
allow the City to assess a developer for his/her share of transportation system
improvement costs attributable to the impact of that development. The fee may be
adjusted once the program is finalized and updated information is available.
Creating a new model is estimated to cost from $300,000 for the basic model to as
much as $500,000 depending upon the tools that are incorporated into the model. It
should take approximately 2 months for staff to return to Council with specific options
for the model and the associated costs. At this time, staff will be refining the land use
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database for its inclusion into the model and working with Fehr and Peers to identify
and start developing some of the basic elements of the model.
Background
On July 24, 2008 City Council completed .its review of the Land Use and Circulation
Element Strategy Framework (June 2008) and directed staff to proceed with the
analysis-that will lead to a draft Land Use and Circulation Element plan. Staff is
incorporating City Council's recommendations and proceeding into the evaluation
phase. The Strategy Framework identifies a transportation program that includes the
following elements:
Location -the plan integrates land use and transportation, focusing the limited
opportunities .for change near transit: Locating activity centers along existing and
proposed transit corridors encourages environmentally sustainable development
patterns and transportation decisions that encourage reduced driving and increased
walking and biking as well as new buildings designed to reduce auto impacts and
facilitate alternative transportation opportunities.
• Manage Congestion - "No Net New Trips": A set of aggressive Transportation
Demand Management (TDM) strategies .will focus on area-wide "Districts"
throughout the City. This will include employers, schools, hospitals and others to
develop and implement comprehensive and collaborative approaches and solutions
to reduce single occupancy vehicle trips and incentivize alternative modes. The
measures could include transit passes, additional shuttle/transit service, shared
parking, unbundling parking, a comprehensive flex-car program, car and vanpools,
expanded bicycle facilities (loaners, racks, etc.) and enhanced pedestrian facilities.
• Complete Neighborhoods: The framework establishes an approach where the
needs of daily life are within walking or biking distance of where people live,
reducing auto trips. The plan seeks to create the optimal array of local services in
existing districts and create new local serving areas in parts of the city that are
currently lacking services.
• Traffic Impact Fees: New projects would be expected to contribute traffic mitigation
fees as part of a comprehensive traffic mitigation strategy to offset transportation
impacts of their projects. Fees may be used to improve walking routes, bicycle and
transit facilities and other transportation system improvements.
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Discussion
The. city's tools for measuring the success of its transportation system should follow
from the goals and policies of the LUCE. It is important to measure all the ways that
the transportation system supports our larger goals, including the need to address how
people experience it -the motorists, pedestrians, bicyclists and transit riders. City
Council asked that staff bring back approaches to: 1) measure and monitor the success
of the transportation system; 2) evaluate the progression of land use changes and how
they affect the transportation system; and 3) manage congestion. Appropriate
measurement tools will enable the City Council to make decisions about phasing future
land uses. This report discusses methodologies for measuring existing and future
conditions, as well as impact fees to fund transportation system improvements.
The measurement approaches in this report address information relevant 'fo
transportation system performance, such as:
• How changes to land use patterns impact travel behavior. Two'',key strategies of the
LUCE are to locate mast new development near transit stops and to ensure the right
mix of uses so that people can walk to take dare of their daily needs.
• The impact of Transportation Demand Management strategies. New TDM program
requirements ort developers, incentives for existing employers and revealing the true
cost of parking to motorists are also key strategies in the LUCE::
.' How investments in walking, bicycling and transit will change travel behavior.
•' Vehicle Miles Traveled an~I COZ emissions.
• Effectiveness in meeting the "No Net New Trips" goal
• How changes to the transportatior system and congestion patterns impact driving
' behavior, including spillover traffic and actual'travel times by corridor.
• Regionai pass-through traffic.
• Guidance on setting thresholds, phasing, morritaring and mitigation strategies.
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I. Develoument of Performance Measures to Assess Current Conditions
As part of the LUCE process there were four workshops in the past year dedicated to
the subject of transportation and the Circulation Element, where the community
identified what is important to them in order to move around Santa Monica easily and
safely. Community input also produced a list of approaches to measure the
performance of the transportation system. The matrix included as Attachment A
includes around 60 different ways that Santa Monica could measure the degree to
which its transportation system supports its larger community values. Examples of the
types of measures are provided below:
Examples of Potential Transportation Measures
Measure CostlTime Implementation
Consumption
Relative travel times by mode Medium Requires data collection. Transit travel times can be
automated in GPS.
Person capacity- walking, bike, Medium -Heavy This is a GIS/Excel. type function that can be included if there
transit, auto, parking, bike is survey data available. Can be modeled.
parking
Perception surveys Medium -Heavy Surveys of residents walking, biking, taking transit, using
recreational facilities and what they think about the quality of
the facilities.
Next Steps for Performance Measures
The current task is to refine the long list of performance measures into a recommended
list for reporting on progress toward meeting goals. The list will be drafted to ensure
effective evaluation tools while .maintaining the smallest number of indicators that
provide a reasonable proxy for the issues that matter most. Some indicators, like per
capita Vehicle Miles Traveled, relate to many topics, including C02 emissions, air
quality, congestion and economic efficiency.
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Staff proposes to conduct a public workshop and a Planning Commission working
session on a recommended short list, followed by a Council workshop and adoption.
Staff is also working on incorporating measures into future Sustainable City Report
Cards. Some of the measures being considered are:
Examples of Revisions to Sustainable City Report Card
Measures of Level of Effort and Investment
• Progress toward completing auto, bicycle, pedestrian and transit networks
• Relative completeness of neighborhoods
• Development of demand management districts and availability of tools to
residents, visitors; students and employees
• Accessibility of Santa Monica jobs and schools to employees and students
°• Accessibility 'of commercial districts,' including neighborhood commercial
districts
Measures of Overall System Effectiveness-Aie We Achieving; No Net Trip
Goal?
• Travel times along corridors
• Comparative travel times by travel mode
• Travel behavior of residents, visitors, employees and students
• Increasefdecrease in auto traffic volumes on City streets
• Quality of transportation system
• Impact of transportation choices on greenhouse gas emissions
II. A Proposed New Forecasting Model for LUCE Evaluation
As the performance measures address the current conditions, transportation models
are. used to predict future conditions. Santa Monica's existing Traffix tool is a
spreadsheet model that is used to predict how development projects will impact.
average automobile Level of Service (LOS) at intersections. The tool starts with direct
measurements of actual intersection Level of Service and adds future growth based
upon past trends. The estimated traffic generated by a proposed project is added and
Light -Already being done; Medium -Can be implemented with additional resources; Heavy -Will be costly and
time consuming
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compared with future traffic without the project. This is awidely-accepted approach for
the purposes of evaluating proposed development projects through the CEQA process
and will continued to be used with confidence. It is a more sophisticated tool than many
communities use, in that it is based upon actual local data and the citywide cumulative
analysis provides a consistent base of information against which project impacts can be
evaluated. The quickest and least expensive option for the LUCE EIR analysis would
be to rely on the .existing Traffix model and supplement the information with additional
data such as vehicle miles traveled (VMT).
With that said, the analysis of the effect of proposed LUCE policies on the
transportation system over atwenty-year time horizon would benefit from a more
comprehensive travel demand model. Staff is exploring the development of a model
similar to those currently being developed for the cities of West Hollywood and Santa
Barbara.. In addition to the types of measurement listed in the grey inset on page 4, the
model could have the capabilities to:
• Measure actual travel times; a factor more important to motorists than average
seconds of delay at a particular intersection.
• Predict the routes that motorists would take based upon an analysis of which
routes are fastest -just as motorists will do in reality.
• Consider how surrounding land uses impact travel behavior - i.e., anew corner
market does not necessarily generate all "new" vehicle trips and may actually
subtract more vehicle gips than it creates.
• How the system serves pedestrians, transit users and bicyclists.
Actual monitoring and tracking of conditions and system performance over time could
be used to improve and calibrate the forecasting tools.
Next Steps to Develop a Model
The City could move forward with one of several different approaches in performing the
CEQA traffic analysis for the draft LUCE. Much more analytical capability and
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information would be available to decision makers with a new travel demand model.
Staff is exploring a range of factors that have implications for cost and project schedule.
The development of a travel demand model is less costly and time-intensive than in the
past; with the availability of new software applications that link to the City's land-use
based Geographic Information System (GIS). Staff is evaluating with. Fehr & Peers, the
LUCE EIR traffic consultant, the various components that could potentially be included
in a model. Factors that will affect both the time and cost are the number of
intersections included and whether the City needs a weekend forecast in additional to
weekday AM and PM peak hours. The cost of creating a fairly basic model that would
include all the City's study intersections is approximately-$300,000 and is estimated to
take three to four months to develop. Additional scope enhancements for consideration
could include:
• Additional "horizon year" model runs to address possible phasing scenarios;
• Greenhouse gas emissions data derived from the traffic counts and travel
demand forecasts; and
• Walking and bicycling demand at a block by block level.
A new. travel demand model will require actual parcel-level data for all current and
proposed land uses in the City in order for it to provide accurate information. This will
provide precise information regarding how new development will impact traffic, as well
as how investments in Transportation Demand Management and non-auto modes can
mitigate those impacts. The task of collecting and verifying this information is time
intensive and staff is assessing how this could best be accomplished. The gathering
and coding of land use data would take place concurrently while the scope of the travel
demand model is being developed.
Fehr & Peers is the consultant tasked with performing the traffic analysis for the LUCE
EIR and with an optional task to develop a travel demand model. Fehr & Peers are a
leader in the field of building and using micro-simulation applications for travel demand
forecasting. The City would benefit from their recent experience working with the Cities
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of West Hollywood and Santa Barbara, which both have some characteristics similar to
Santa Monica. .Fehr & Peers will also be working closely with the City's LUCE
transportation consultant at NelsonlNygaard.
III. Development of an Impact Fee
The City Council asked during the 2008/2009 budget adoption process for further
information regarding a transportation impact fee. While enabling language exists in the
Municipal Code, no resolution has been adopted to establish fees because there was
no transportation plan necessary to identify the needed improvements. and associated
costs.
Now, with the circulation and transportation goals and policies defined, Council could
consider preparation and adoption of a transportation mitigation impact-fee ordinance.
Prior to adopting a fee the City will need to undertake a nexus study to assess the
improvement measures required as part of a comprehensive traffic management
strategy, the cost of these measures, and the appropriate fee that should be imposed
on individual development projects to mitigate the identified impacts of each project:
Based on the Strategy Framework identified policies and actions, the necessary listing
of transportation system improvements that need to be financed can be developed.
Staff can conduct a nexus study and bring forward a fee ordinance.
Next Steps
Assuming that the development of some form of travel demand model is preferable,
work will be initiated to refine existing land use data by parcel and to develop baseline
analysis necessary for the model. Staff and the consultants will develop a
recommendation for options to be included in the model and will return to Council as
soon as possible with the recommendations and costs for Council to consider. The
new model could then be used for the CEQA evaluation of the draft LUCE. A final Land
Use and Circulation Element, as well as the Draft Environmental Impact Review (DEIR),
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would then be available for review, comment and approval by both the Planning
Commission and Council in Fall, 2009.
Financial Impact & Budget Actions
Refining the transportation measures work and the initial development of a
transportation demand management model will be undertaken under existing
professional services agreements. Staff will return to Council to address the cost to
develop a new transportation demand model and to conduct a nexus study to develop a
traffic mitigation fee. No funding is being requested at this time.
Prepared by:
Beth Rolandson, Principal Transportation Planner
Forwarded to Council:
Eileen Fo // ~-~ P~ha1'iiont Ern
Director (/ City Manager
Plannin and Comm ~ y Development
Attachments:
A List of Potential Transportation Performance Measures
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ATTACHMENT A
POTENTIAL TRANSPORTATION PERFORMANCE MEASURES FROM LUCE PROCESS
Measure: Quantification of an aspect of the transportation system
CostITime Consumption:
• Easy is already being collected in some format (i.e., Sustainable Cities Report Card),
• Medium would require additional resources (i.e., added staffing or consulting to collect data periodically..
through surveys and research)
• Heavy would require long term investment in new technologies and tracking abilities (i.e., developing new
travel demand model specifically for Santa Monica)
Implementation: Description of process to collect data
Measure CostlTime Implementation
Consumption
MANAGEMENT
Since we cannot build our way out of congestion, transportation and parking!must be managed carefully as a
limited renewable+resource.
Relative travel times by mode Medium Transit vehicle travel time can be gathered from existing Big
Blue Bus (BBB) data, auto, bicycle and pedestrian travel
times could also be measured through travel diaries or field
measurements by staff or extrapolated from expanded
employee survey; can be modeled. If a model is developed, it
could forecast mode and route choice based on this data.
Person. capacity -walking, bike, Medium -Heavy Collection of baseline capacity information as well as tracking
transit, auto, parking, bike parking usage of each mode or resource over time; could be tracked
with GIS or spreadsheet; if a model can be developed, it
could forecast the effect of capacity constraints on mode
choice.
Transit Level Of Service (LOS): Medium -Heavy Data reported by BBB in the form of Short Range Transit
productivity, farebox return, delay, Plan. Could require extensive model development to get this
reliability level in a travel demand model. Direct ridership modeling
would be another option and would require less
data/development time
Neighborhood traffic spillover Medium Systematically monitor traffic volumes driver behavior (speed,
etc), and accidents
Congestion Heavy Requires periodic counting, updating and maintenance of
TRAFFIX database. Congestion is also indirectly measured in
the relative travel times by mode and the person capacity
analysis above.
Measure CostITime Implementation
Consumption
No net new trips Heavy Surveys of residents and visitors and Employee Trip Survey
data are two of the sources that will be used to measure this.
May be supplemented by counts of automobiles. Could be
modeled, with periodic supplemental measurements.
Regional delaylcapacityldemand Medium Reporting should rely on resources external to the City of
Santa Monica, requiring monitoring of regional output from
models, SCAG, MTA and Caltrans. Regional traffic volumes
and possibly also delay should be,obtained for highways
surrounding Sarita Monica. Volumes for 1-10 and PCH can be
obtained from Caltrans. Peak hour delay etc may be more
difficult to obtain.
STREETS
Streets are designed and managed to support thl3: places and neighborhoods they serve and to balance the
needs of everyone who travels on them.
Balance person Heavy Needs to be further refined, but we need to look at not just
capacity/developments single vehicle occupancy trips.
of bus stops that have shelters Light Could be tracked through GIS or a database.
with and without real-time info
Bike lane completeness, bike Light -Medium Could be tracked through GIS or a database.
parking
Sidewalk completeness Medium Could be tracked through GIS or a database.
Trees removed vs. trees planted Light -Medium Could be tracked through GIS or a database..
QUALITY
Santa Monica's transportation choices are key to its high quality of life, and its transportation choices are
enjoyable for everyone who. uses them.
Perception surveys Medium -Heavy Intercept surveys of residents, visitors, and other travelers
walking, biking, taking transit, using recreational facilities and
what they think about the quality of facilities.
Usage by mode Light -Medium Transit ridership is reported by BBB and Metro. TDM
Ordinance requires employers to collect commute mode data
in the Employee Trip Surrey: Data collection would need to
be expanded to capture non-work trips through surveys. The
City could potentially do counts for pedestrians and bicyclists,
particularly to address the no net new vehicle trips.
~ Person capacity to development balance is whether the streets can provide access far the number of people who are
trying to get to/from an activity center.
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Measure CostlTme Implementation
Consumption
Completeness Medium Use GIS to map gaps in bicycle network and pedestrian
network. Present as percentage complete. See'Streets'.
Accessibility to goods and services Light Although not giving the full picture, the Walk score tool using
GIS can be useful in portraying areas of low accessibility or
accessibility by area of community. Dependent on outside
provider (www,walkscore.com) and that that provider updates
its database regularly, or City would have to develop a similar
GIS based tool.
Access tolfrom region Medium -Heavy Could use Employee Trip Survey or use Census Data for
Santa Monica residents as source of information. Use GIS to
map travel shed (changes based on time of day/day of week)
once data is collected by walking, bicycling and auto.
Jobs within walking distance to ` Medium GIS analysis, difficult to plotjobs, would have to rely on
transit business license or employee commute data
Population within walking distance Medium GIS analysis; based on residential units or population by
to transit block or block group as reported in census
PUBLIC SPACES
Santa Monica's streets are a primary component of the. city's open space and recreational system, and its "
transportation system supports the city's social life.
# of people using recreational Heavy Person counts in parks, streets and other gathering spaces.
spaces + gathering
# of restaurants providing outdoor Medium Should be able to obtain this information from existing permit
dining information.
# of people using San Heavy Use pedestrian counts. See first measure under this principle.
Vicente/OlympiclBeach/ Promenade
# of residents who walk for fun or Medium Resident survey would need to be completed periodically to
recreation track over time.
# of farmers' markets Light Should be able to track and usage of markets from data
already available.
# of parades/races Medium Should be able to obtain this information from existing permit
information.
# of street closures for Medium Should be able to obtain this information from existing permits
neighborhood block parties information.
Greening of public property Light -Medium Track amount of public space paved for automobiles that can
be "greened:'
ENVIRONMENT:.
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Measure CostlTime Implementation
Consumption
Santa Monica's most significant opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions come from'reducing
automobile dependency and vehicle trips.
Carbon footprint Medium Contribute to City's measurement of total green house gas
emissions.
VMT Medium-Heavy Despite efforts to capture in sources such as the Sustainable
City Plan, new investments are required to capture data on a
more regular basis.
Average emissions/vehicle :city- Light -Medium City fleet may be achievable to capture. However, it is
fleet, city-wide uncertain if information for all vehicles registered in the City
can be obtained; moreover, converting vehicles to emissions
may belabor intensive.
Share ofnon-emitting vehicles Light -Medium The City tracks vehicle ownership of the City fleet and is
looking to track the share of non-emitting vehicles as part of
all vehicles owned.
HEALTH '
There are few better opportunities for improving public health than increasing walking and bicycling,
particularly for children and the elderly.
Total walklbike trips Medium US Census Data could be used to track work trips, but this is
only updated every ten years. A survey would be necessary
to track non-work made by foot or bike and to get a more
frequent mode split for work trips.
Walk/bike mode share Medium See comment above.
Walk/bike, children/elderly Medium See comment above. Survey would be needed.
Recreational use of streets See measures under Public Spaces.
of population who choose Medium Could be determined with a survey.
walklbike for fun
AFFORDABILITY
Reducing the costs of transportation can make housing more affordable for everyone, and increasing
opportunities for location-efficient housing can make transportation affordable for everyone.
0-75% of median, 75.150% of Heavy This may require complex surveys.
median, above, how much is spent
on transportation costs
Change in car ownership rates Medium City currently relies on census data, additional surveying
would be necessary to have more regular data updates.
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Measure CostlTime Implementation
Consumption
# of affordable housing units within Medium Use decennial census data and GIS to find out number or
Yz hour travel shed of Santa Monica percentage of affordable units within the travel shed.
Transit intensity index2 Light This would require tracking of all new development in a GIS
with transit LOS.
of units with unbundled parking Heavy This would require tracking of all new development in a GIS
or spreadsheet with information about bundled/unbundled
parking and type of unbundling.
of jobs with parking cash-out Light A question about the # of employees using parking cash out
could be included in the Employee Trip Survey.
Net transportation cost: Multiply Heavy This would require complex surveys.
mode split by cost of
transportation for each mode
ECONOMY'.
A'strong economy requires an efficient transportation system, and strong local retail reduces automobile
dependency.
Retail sales as indicator of Medium Data currently exists on retail sales and would need to be
transportation opportunities by tracked overtime.
commercial area
Parking availability in commercial Light where data Rely on information from downtown parking structures and
district tracking is usage of parking meters. Surveys would be required in
automated; locations without parking payment.
heavy elsewhere
Ensure the right retail mix - Medium-Heavy Can be modeled. Could use walk score. May need to set
formula retail specific indicator services to test for.
Workers within half-hour travel Medium Could use Census data of entire population or surveys of
shed existing workers.
EQUITY
The costs and benefits of transportation investments should accrue, regardless of income, race,: gender, age or
ability.
Access to goods/jobs3 Heavy Extensive data would be required, but still feasible.
Mode Split' Heavy Could use census data as baseline and adjust based on
surveys
z Transit Intensity Index is defined as new housing located near good transit (average headways within walking
distance of new housing).
a (For communities of concern -Youth, seniors, people with disabilities, Pico neighborhood, renters, low income,
homeless, people of color).
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Measure CostITime Implementation
Consumption
Access to regions Heavy GIS could be used to track communities or groups of concern
and their access to the region.
Progress on ADA Transition Plan Use GIS and track percentage completed.
SAFETY
The transportation system must be safe for all users and all. modes, regardless of age or ability, so that both
grandparents and,grandchildrenfeel safe crossing anystreet.
Crashes Light to Heavy Data is available and could be tracked geographically through
GIS, would need to make sure that the right factors are
measured and attempt to track causes of crashes.
Injuries Light to heavy See comment above.
Fatalities Light to heavy See comment above.
Walklbike crashes/injuries/fatalities Medium Use the above statistics and divide by mode share factor.
per usage rates
Perception of safety Medium A regular survey is required to track and to gain information
on perception of safety by mode with ability to determine what
factors people feel uncomfortable about.
Usage of walkinglbiking/transit, Medium -Heavy Requires surveys of residents and visitors.
nighttime etc
Ibid.
s Ibid.
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